Park Lawn is the last proposed GO station that he analyses, and it starts about 75% down the article.
“Although the report speaks of strong ridership at Park Lawn, the ridership projection is not as rosy. The table below shows a modest number of new riders, and shows no losses from “upstream” riders even though Park Lawn is less attractive for those who now park at Mimico. Moreover the additional revenue per rider, at roughly $1.30, does not make sense (I await a reply from Metrolinx explaining this). It is unclear whether this is the effect of discounting future revenue at a higher rate than assumed fare increases (in effect with future riders paying lower fares discounted to today’s dollars) or from revenue lost to those who abandon GO because they can no longer park-and-ride.
“The estimated capital cost is $189.4 million (2015), and this is a high cost site because extensive infrastructure changes would be needed to accommodate a Park Lawn station. The site is constrained at the southwest by Etobicoke Creek and at the northeast by the Gardiner Expressway.
“The study concludes:
“”The IBC found that closing Mimico station and constructing a Park Lawn station, at this time, does not meet many of Metrolinx’s objectives for a new station. A replacement Park Lawn station supports only a few of the criteria for new stations. The results, which include negative cost recovery, negative benefit-cost ratios, significant construction challenges and potentially negative impacts on GO operations, are largely attributed to the significant capital costs. While a station located at Park Lawn is anticipated to attract more riders to the Lakeshore West GO rail line than the existing Mimico station, the associated benefits are not enough to off-set the significant capital costs. [p. 52]””